The first of these final two races is a clencher, due to the fact that all of the nominees are really deserving. However, as good as Quentin Tarantino (my favorite director), Lee Daniels, and Jason Reitman are, the race is really between Katherine Bigelow and James Cameron, for The Hurt Locker and Avatar, respectively.
Cameron and Bigelow are ex-spouses, and that is very much reflected through the differences of their films. While Bigelow's Locker is a small, independent film that uses limited sets and a small budget, Avatar is the most expensive film ever made, and features a huge amount of special effects. It's also the highest grossing film of all time, with over two billion dollars in revenue.
I'm predicting a Cameron win for two reasons. First, for the same reason that I think Avatar is going to get best picture: because he's completely revolutionized the film industry. Second, because he did it almost single-handedly.
I'm not implying that Cameron, who last won the award for Titanic) is solely responsible for Avatar, but he certainly put so much effort into developing the technology for the film (before he even began shooting) that makes him more deserving than Bigelow. Almost ten years was put into Avatar, and that huge amount of work yielded an even bigger payoff -- Cameron's new technology will likely be used for years to come.
Though egotistical Cameron may be, he's also very, very deserving. He'll also probably tell us that he's king of the world again, though this time, it's of another world than ours.
[...] Best Director [...]